Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Dollar in Focus, with the Georgia Runoffs also in the Spotlight

by Warrior2

It’s a busy day on the economic calendar, with service sector PMIs in focus. Direction on the day, however, will likely be hinged on the Georgia runoffs.

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. Key stats included service sector PMI figures from Japan and China.

Away from the economic calendar, updates from the Georgia runoffs weighed on demand for riskier assets early in the session.

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For the Japanese Yen

The finalized services PMI came in at 47.2 for December, which was in line with a prelim 47.2, while down from a November 47.8. In November, the PMI had risen from 47.7 to 47.8.

According to the December survey,

  • Incoming new business fell for an 11th consecutive month, while the pace of decline eased.
  • A 3rd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic weighed on demand at the end of the year.
  • Export orders were particularly subdued.
  • Employment levels stabilized, with an increase in the hiring of skilled staff being offset by further retirements.
  • Firms remained confident that activity would expand in the coming year. Business expectations were positive for a 4th month in a row, with hopes of an end to the pandemic driving optimism.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥102.606 to ¥102.640 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥102.82 against the U.S Dollar.

From China

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 57.8 to 56.3 in December. In November, the PMI had risen from 56.8 to 57.8.

According to the Caixin survey,

  • New business expanded at a softer pace, with new export sales seeing only a modest increase.
  • Firms continued to hire, leading to a fall in backlogs. The pace of hiring was modest, however, after having hit a decade high in November.
  • Optimism reached its highest level since April 2011, with optimism towards the global economic outlook providing support.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77508 to $0.77541 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar down by 0.27% to $0.7738.

The Majors

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.7141.Advertisement

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Service and composite PMIs for Italy and Spain are due out along with finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

We would expect the Eurozone’s services and composite PMIs to have the greatest impact on the EUR.

December inflation figures for Germany are also due out but would likely have a muted impact in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and vaccine updates will also influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% to $1.2287.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized service and composite PMI figures are due out later today.

Expect any revisions to the services PMI to influence the Pound.

Ultimately, however, expect COVID-19 vaccine news to be the key driver following the reintroduction of lockdown measures.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.19% to $1.3601.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized Markit service and composite PMIs, ADP nonfarm employment change, and factory order figures are due out.

Barring any marked revisions to the services PMI, the ADP figures will likely garner the greatest interest.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes will also draw attention late in the day.

Away from the economic calendar, however, COVID-19 and the Georgia runoffs will also provide direction.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.21% to 89.630.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic data front, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers and market risk appetite.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.16% to C$1.2689 against the U.S Dollar.

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